March Madness: My picks

I normally don’t follow college basketball; there are just too many games.  But I do tend to get caught up in March Madness.  Not to the point of bringing a TV and rabbit ears to work like a former co-worker of mine used to do every year, but I do enjoy watching games when I can.

That said, here are my pics for the men’s tournament.  Yes, most of them are safe bets while a few are probably long shots.  (Predicted winner in parentheses)  Discuss.

Sweet 16.
Pitt vs. Florida State (Pitt)
Duke vs. Villanova (Villanova)
Louisville vs. Wake Forest (Louisville)
Kansas vs. Michigan State (Kansas)
LSU vs. Gonzaga (LSU)
OU vs. Syracuse (OU)
UConn vs. Purdue (UConn)
Missouri vs. Memphis (Memphis)

Elite 8.
Pitt vs. Villanova (Pitt)
Louisville vs. Kansas (Kansas)
LSU vs. OU (LSU)
UConn vs. Memphis (UConn)

Final Four.
Pitt vs. LSU (Pitt)
Kansas vs. UConn (UConn)

Championship.
Pitt vs. UConn (Pitt)

There you go.  Let the madness begin.

At least he’ll always have his spiffy visor

What a sweet, sweet ending to the 2008 college football season.  After a first half marred by interceptions, penalties, and defective play clocks, the Florida Gators emerged victorious over the Oklahoma Sooners in the BCS National Championship game last night.  For the Sooners, it’s their fifth straight BCS bowl game loss and their third national championship loss under head coach “Big Game Bob” Stoops and his dandy white visor.

OU’s loss dropped them to No. 6 in the final AP poll behind No. 5 Texas and proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that the Gators were playing the wrong Big XII team for the national title.

While the BCS system is still broken and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future, however, at least undefeated Utah ended up in the No. 2 spot in the AP poll (although they still finished behind USC and Texas in the USA Today poll).  I guess that’s as close to justice as anyone can expect in this day and age.

So now officially the season is done and the long drought begins before the next collegiate kickoff.  Thanks to a returning Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley, and a host of extraordinarily talented younger players, Texas is well-positioned to make another run for the championship in 2009.

I can’t wait.

Weekly Wii prediction, Fiesta Bowl edition: UT 20, Ohio State 7

I wondered at the beginning of this year’s college football season how accurate EA Sports’ NCAA College Football 09 for the Wii was at predicting the outcomes of the real games.  Each week, I played the game as the University of Texas versus their scheduled opponent for the week and then compared that score to the real score.

A few of the Wii scores were fairly close to the actual ones (Florida Atlantic, Rice, Texas A&M) while others were way off (Arkansas, Missouri, Baylor), margins of error probably not too different than what you’d get from ESPN and other “expert” prognosticators.

Which brings us to the final Texas game of the season, the Fiesta Bowl.  It’s been yet another wacky season thanks to the BCS computers, biased voters, and controversial Big XII tie-breaking rules.  Heck, it even involved competing fleets of airplanes over Austin and Norman as the Red River rivals taunted each other by air.

But while Florida and OU are busy trying to justify why each of their 1-loss teams are more deserving of the National Championship than undefeated Utah, the Longhorns are happy to settle the score with the Ohio State Buckeyes.  UT and OSU have met twice before, in 2005 and 2006.  The Horns won the first with Vince Young on their way to a National Championship, then lost the second with Colt McCoy — that game only being Colt’s second game of his college career.

A lot has changed since 2006, however.  Colt is now a Heisman runner-up, and the Horns are a dropped pass and missed tackle away from a perfect season.  Ohio State, meanwhile, has two losses for the season, both to teams who squared off against each other in the Rose Bowl.  Texas had one of the toughest schedules in the nation, while the highest ranked opponent beaten by Ohio State was No. 18 Wisconsin, and even that was only a 3-point victory.  (It should also be noted that Wisconsin went on to get thumped by Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.)

Now some might argue that a team’s regular season schedule isn’t always an indicator of how well they’ll do in the bowl game, and that’s true (just ask Alabama).  So how well have Texas and Ohio State fared in recent bowls?  Well, the Buckeyes have been to the National Championship game the last two years, but they lost both times.  Texas, on the other hand, has won its last four consecutive bowl games, two of which have been against Big 10 teams.

And this year should make it number five, with Texas beating the Buckeyes 20 to 7, according to the Wii.

As always, I’ll update the blog after the game with the real score.

And as always, Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 24-21.

Wow, what an incredible game!  Frustrating, of course, for most of the game, but the final two minutes made up for it.  It was very fitting that the final touchdown was made by Quan Cosby, who, like Vince Young, can say the final play of his college football career was a game-winning touchdown made in the final moments of a BCS game.  Coupled with Brian Orakpo’s sack seconds later, you couldn’t have asked for a more fitting ending to the season.

The Longhorns finish the season 12-1, and while they likely won’t end up as national champions, they have nothing to feel bad about.  Keep in mind that most people looked at their schedule this year and expected them to finish the regular season 9-3 or 8-4, maybe 10-2 if they were lucky.  Yet, they were nearly flawless.

I just want to say I’ve had a lot of fun this season doing these prediction posts.  If anything, it’s given me an excuse to play video games once a week.  Maybe, I’ll do it again next season just for grins.

Of course, right now that seems like an eternity away.

Welcome to bowl season!

Although the college football bowl season officially kicked off a few days ago with the EagleBank Bowl (?!), tonight it really begins when TCU faces off against Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl.

This should be a great game between two strong teams.  The Horned Frogs are 10-2 and ranked No. 11, while Boise State is undefeated and ranked No. 9.  Both teams, of course, got shafted by the BCS and have lots to prove, which should make for an exciting game.  (Thankfully, the game is in San Diego instead of on the Smurf-turf at Boise State!  Seriously, what in the heck is up with that blue Astroturf?!)

I have my share of complaints about the BCS system, which I’ve shared before, but one great by-product of it is that you often end up with some really entertaining games between teams that wouldn’t otherwise ever play each other, even in a playoff system.

I won’t make any predictions, but I’m certainly rooting for TCU to win big against the Broncos.

Go, Frogs!

Yes, the BCS is flawed. What’s your point?

Texas coach Mack Brown wasn’t happy.  Because of an odd tiebreaker rule in the Big XII Conference, OU will play Missouri for the Big XII Championship with a shot at the National Title game should they beat the Tigers.  The Longhorns, meanwhile, finish behind OU even though the Sooners lost to the Horns in October and will likely end up in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State.

That, apparently, isn’t a good enough consolation prize for Mack:

I’m really disappointed for our kids that two teams we beat this season will be playing for the Big 12 Championship. I’ll try to explain it to them, but most importantly, my message will be that you’ve done enough to put yourself in position to play for the conference championship, you had a great season and there still is a lot out there for you to play for.

… Since this situation has never happened before in the Big 12, I think the conference should follow the lead of all of the other BCS leagues with championship games (ACC/Conference USA/Mid-American/SEC) in how they settle three-way ties. I think their systems are fairer and give more credit to how the two highest ranked teams performed against each other on the field.

I have to wonder, though: Would Mack and all the other angry Longhorn fans feel the same way if they had come out on top?

It seems like this same argument comes up every year about how flawed the BCS system is and why a playoff system is necessary.  Maybe it is flawed, and maybe playoffs would be a better alternative.  But so what?

Anyone who thinks for a minute that the BCS is about determining the best college football team in the country is kidding themselves.  If it were, then why would a 9-3 Missouri team ranked No. 20 have more of a shot at a BCS bowl than undefeated Boise State who’s ranked No. 9?  Why would a 3-loss Boston College team ranked No. 17 have a shot when 1-loss Texas Tech (No. 7) will probably have to settle for the Cotton Bowl?

No, the BCS is about making money.  That’s it.  That’s why some conferences such as the Big XII and SEC get automatic berths while others, such as the Mountain West, do not.

Hey, Frito-Lay paid good money to put their Tostitos brand on the Fiesta Bowl.  They expect to get their money’s worth.  FedEx has a vested interest in how many viewers tune in for the Orange Bowl.  The cities that host the BCS bowls (Glendale, New Orleans, Pasadena, and Miama Gardens), have a vested interest in how many tickets they can sell and how much money the spectators spend while they’re there.

Teams also have a vested interest.  Just for playing in a BCS bowl, a school stands to earn about $17.5 million, and many coaches’ contracts provide for extra bonuses for making to and winning a BCS bowl.

Meanwhile, non-BCS bowls, because they’re not as lucrative, end up getting a bad rap.  From Texas Monthly:

Last season, teams that would have otherwise accepted invitations to the Cotton (SEC runner-up Georgia) and the blue-turf Humanitarian (WAC champ Hawaii) earned a lucrative promotion to the Sugar Bowl. As part of the resulting lineup shuffle, 6-6 Alabama played 6-6 Colorado in the “Who Cares?” Independence Bowl—except that the Crimson Tide’s 30-24 win over the Buffs made for better viewing than the Bulldogs’ 41-10 blowout of the Warriors. One year before that, the Fiesta Bowl gave us Oklahoma-Boise State, an all-time classic. But that same season the Sun (Oregon State beat Missouri 39-38 by going for 2 points at the end of the fourth quarter) and the Alamo (Texas overcame a 14-0 hole to hold off Iowa 26-24) bowls were just as entertaining.

Do Texas fans have a legitimate argument that they deserve to be ranked higher than OU based on the head-to-head matchup?  Sure.  But it didn’t work out that way.  Not this year.

Instead, Texas ended up ranked No. 3 in the nation at the end of the regular season with only a single loss (which came in the final seconds of the game).  Their quarterback broke a string of school records and is a finalist for the Heisman.  They beat both OU and A&M.  And they will likely play in a BCS bowl against Ohio State (a game I, for one, am looking forward to).  They even still have a slight (albeit unlikely) chance at playing for the National Title if OU loses to Missouri.

So tell me, how is it that Mack Brown is disappointed?

The BCS isn’t fair sometimes, just like life isn’t fair.  But as long as the money keeps rolling in, that’s the system we have to deal with in college football.

Like it or not.

Weekly Wii prediction: UT 41, A&M 0

With so much focus on the various BCS predictions, it’s easy to forget there’s a football game on Thanksgiving night.  But of course it’s not just any game, it’s Texas vs. Texas A&M.

Now, you’re probably wondering, so what?  The 10-1 Horns are No. 2 in the nation, and the Aggies are 4-7.  Heck, A&M (“the floormats of the Big 12″) even lost to Baylor this year!  A blowout is all but guaranteed.

Or is it?

Aggie fans will be quick to point out that Texas has lost to A&M the past two consecutive years, and I’m betting they’d like to make it three.

Oh, who are we kidding?  A&M doesn’t have the same caliber team it’s had the past few years, and Texas is playing at least as well as it did in 2005.  The Horns will win this one and win big: 41-0, according to NCAA Football ’09 for the Wii.

But with almost nothing to gain from the victory, why is it still such an important game?

Because it’s Texas vs. A&M.

OU might be UT’s biggest threat, but A&M is still their biggest rival.  After all, it’s the Aggies who are mentioned every time the Longhorns sing their fight song:

Texas Fight, Texas Fight,
And it’s goodbye to A&M.

So have another round of turkey, dressing, and burnt orange pumpkin pie, and let’s all be thankful for another Texas Longhorn victory.

Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 49-9.  Wow!  A pretty close prediction (closer than I expected) and the largest margin of victory for Texas over A&M in 110 years!  With the exception of a missed field goal, it was a picture-perfect game.  Unfortunately, it probably won’t be enough to stay ahead of OU in the polls, but the Horns have done everything they could possibly do.  If they make it to the Fiesta Bowl, I will be satisfied.  More thoughts about the flawed BCS system and Big XII tie-breaker method later.  But for now, just appreciate an 11-1 season that far exceeded all expectations.

The BCS, Big XII, and Bedlam

Well, rooting for Tech against OU did absolutely nothing.  I can’t say I’m surprised.  Tech only plays well at home.

So here’s where we stand: Texas moved up to No. 2 in the BCS while OU is No. 3 by a razor-thin margin, with Tech dropping to No. 7.  Texas has to beat A&M, period.  That shouldn’t be hard this year since the Aggies are 4-7 for the year.  And Tech will almost certainly beat Baylor.  That leaves the OU-OSU game as the wildcard.

If OU wins, they’ll probably leapfrog UT in the BCS and will face Missouri for the Big XII Championship.  A win there would probably put them in the National Championship against the SEC Champion (either Alabama or Florida).  Texas still ranks higher than Tech and would probably go to the Fiesta Bowl.

If OSU wins, Tech wins the Big XII South tiebreaker and heads to Kansas City to play Mizzou for the Big XII Championship.  If the Red Raiders win there, they are guaranteed a BCS bowl, but it wouldn’t be the National Championship.  Texas would move back up ahead of OU in the polls, and it’s very possible they could end up in the National Championship game.

So as long as the Horns beat A&M, they should be fine regardless of the outcome of the Bedlam game.  But an OSU win would probably be more beneficial.  Is it possible?  Sure.  Is it likely?  I think it’s 50/50, but only because they’re playing in Stillwater, so the Cowboys will have the home field advantage.

Of course, all of this is ammunition for the anti-BCS crowd, and I kind of agree.  How would it look for the Longhorns to be playing for a National Championship when they didn’t even win their own conference?

I’d like to find out.

Longhorns should root for Tech and Bama to win out

The BCS makes for strange bedfellows.  Had the Texas Longhorns beaten Texas Tech on November 1st, they would still be the undisputed No. 1 team in the country, or possibly a very close 2nd.  As it is, Burnt Orange Nation will spend the bye-week nervously watching what happens in Norman between No. 2 Tech and No. 5 OU.

Should OU win and then beat Oklahoma State on the 29th, there would be a three-way tie in the Big XII South between OU, Tech, and Texas, with the winner decided by the BCS results.  Consequently, there is a slight possibility Texas could come out on top (probably thanks to the BCS computers), and then a Big XII victory over Missouri would then give them a very good shot at the National Championship.

On the other hand, in a three-way tie Texas could end up in third place in the Big XII with an invitation to the Holiday Bowl.  (Although apparently it is possible all three teams could end up in BCS bowls — if the rules are bent.)

It’s that latter scenario that has me rooting for the Red Raiders this week and for Alabama in the SEC Championship on December 6th.  Bama and Tech are both undefeated and ranked first and second in the country, respectively.  By beating OU, Tech not only locks in their spot in the Big XII title game but also guarantees that a 2-loss OU team can’t leapfrog 1-loss Texas.  Plus, the Horns’ single loss looks a lot less painful because it will have been to a top-rated undefeated team.  Barring an embarrassing loss to Mizzou by Tech, the Horns are pretty much a lock for the Fiesta Bowl — a much better ending to the season than the Holiday Bowl.

So why root for the Crimson Tide?  Because a lot of voters are anxious to move Florida up in the polls, and a stronger Florida (which is currently No. 4 in the BCS) is a direct threat to Texas (which is No. 3), regardless of how the Big XII shakes out.

So, no, I won’t be rooting for OU tomorrow.  Let Tech and Bama fight it out for the National Championship.  It’s a lot safer for Texas than hoping for a mathmatical miracle.

Weekly Wii prediction: UT 44, Kansas 0

OK, so the Texas Longhorns are going to Lawrence, Kansas, this week to face off against the Kansas Jayhawks, their last road game of the regular season.  I’ll keep this brief since I know very little about KU, except that head coach Mark Mangino is the spitting image of Mr. Lunt from VeggieTales:

Hee-hee.

OK, I’ll try to be serious now.  (Giggle-snort.)  Yeah, so anyway, the Jayhawks have a great quarterback, Todd Reesing (an Austin native), who will probably be more of a challenge to the Texas defense than Baylor’s Robert Griffin.  But Texas still has Colt McCoy and now-healthy Quan Cosby and Fozzy Whittaker.  Plus, Kansas has a 6-4 record, so barring any major injuries or a complete breakdown of coverage, the Horns should win this one pretty solidly.

The Wii predicts a score of 44-0, Texas.  I predict Mangino will break into song about cheeseburgers by the end of the third quarter.

(Sorry.  I couldn’t resist.)

Real score: 35-7.  Pretty close to the predicted score and a nice win for the Horns.  Only one game left: a Thanksgiving-day roasting of Texas A&M.  But before that, we’ll have to see how this week’s match between Texas Tech and OU turns out, as the outcome of that game has a big impact on which bowl Texas ends up in.  More on that later in the week.

Weekly Wii prediction: UT 80, Baylor 7

Poor Baylor.

The 3-6 Bears have the unenviable task of visiting Austin this week to face the No. 4 Texas Longhorns a week after the Horns were upset by the still-unbeaten Texas Tech Red Raiders.  No longer the masters of their own destiny, the Horns will most certainly be fired up to prove they’re still contenders for the Big XII Championship and possibly the National Championship (not holding my breath).  Thus, Baylor, ever the low man on the Big XII totem pole, should be prepared to receive the brunt of UT’s frustrations.

Coach Briles, welcome to Waco.

According to NCAA Football 09 on the Wii, the score will be UT 80, Baylor 7.  Ouch.  (Let me tell you, by the third quarter, even I was ready for the game to be over with just to put the little electronic players out of their misery!)

Now, is an 80-7 score realistic?  Probably not, especially considering Baylor lost to Missouri last week by only 3 points.  Think about that for a second.  Yes, it’s a loss — no surprise there — but it’s a loss to No. 14 Missouri by 3 points.  Still, while a 73-point victory might be an exaggeration, don’t expect much of a nail-biter in Austin this week.

Of course, the Texas-Baylor game isn’t really the main event this weekend.  No, all the eyes of Texas will be upon the Tech-Oklahoma State game, in hopes the Cowboys can do what Mack Brown & Co. failed to do last week: shut down Graham Harrell and the Red Raider offense.

Repeat after me: Go, Pokes!

And of course, Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 45-21.  As they did during the Missouri game, Baylor kept the score close, at least for part of the game.  That says a lot for how far Baylor has come already under Art Briles.  We’ll see if that improvement continues into the future.  In the meantime, Texas hits the road again this week to take on the Kansas Jayhawks, a tougher team than Baylor for sure, but one that shouldn’t put too much scare into the Horns.

Weekly Wii prediction: UT 41, Texas Tech 7

You might be thinking based on my recent “Longhorns Inc.” post that I’m biased against college football because of the commercial aspects of the game.  That couldn’t be further from the truth.  Despite the commercialism, I still love college football, and this week is a perfect example of why.

Tomorrow the No. 1-ranked Texas Longhorns head to my hometown of Lubbock to face off against the No. 7 Texas Tech Red Raiders.  Both teams are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10, and both are led by Heisman-worthy quarterbacks.  As the Austin American-Statesman said, “Yep, it’s a big one.”  Seems like we’ve heard that a few times before this season.

Anyway, since the “Longhorns Inc.” post focused on a lot of numbers, let’s look at a few others:

• 8-2 – Mack Brown’s record against Tech.  Both losses occurred in Lubbock.
• 2002 – The last year Texas lost to Tech.
• 4 – The Longhorns ranking coming into the 2002 Tech game.  They had already lost to OU, and the loss to Tech would keep them out of the Big XII Championship.  It’s fair to assume that a loss this year would keep them out of the National Championship.
• 2005 – The last time Tech was ranked 7th in the BCS.  It came the same week the Red Raiders played No. 2 UT.  UT won that game 52-17 and would go on to finish the season undefeated and win the National Championship.
• 2006 – The last year Texas played the Red Raiders in Lubbock.  They won that game 35-31 after overcoming a 21-point deficit.  It was Colt McCoy’s first visit to Raiderland.
• 493 – The average number of passing yards racked up by Tech quarterback Graham Harrell in the last two Texas games.  Despite the huge number, the Horns won both games.
• 262 – The average number of passing yards racked up by Texas quarterback Colt McCoy in the last two Tech games.
• 335 – The number of yards averaged by Colt McCoy over the last three games.  He’s completed 85% of his passes, scored 8 touchdowns, and had only 1 interception.  He ranks 2nd nationally in pass efficiency.

So what do all these numbers mean?  It means that Tech does have the potential to beat the Horns, but it’s not going to be easy.  Tech’s offense has basically one play, and that’s to pass.  But accumulating hundreds of passing yards doesn’t necessarily guarantee a victory.

That being said, here’s the one last number:

• 41-7 – The score of the game, as predicted by NCAA Football 09 for the Wii, with Texas claiming the win.

Personally, I think the score will be a lot higher on both sides, but the Horns should still be able to add another victory to the Win column.

Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 39-33, Tech.  WTF?!  Yeah, I knew the predicted score wouldn’t be close, but I’m still stunned by how poorly Texas played through most of the game.  And then after everything, it came down to a dropped interception with 8 seconds left that would’ve given the Horns a 1-point win!  Crap!  Well, time to regroup and just be thankful Texas didn’t fall too far in the polls.  The National Championship is probably no longer an option, but there’s still a lot football left to be played, so anything is possible.  Unfortunately for Texas, though, their fate will be decided by how everyone else does.

Longhorns Inc.

Texas Monthly has an outstanding cover story in their November issue on the big business of The University of Texas athletics.

It’s no surprise that there’s a lot of money being made in college athletics these days, particularly football.  But as they say, everything is bigger in Texas, from UT’s massive $8 million scoreboard (the Godzillatron), to it’s recently expanded north end zone (NEZ) of Royal-Memorial Stadium (at $176.5 million).

With its massive laid-brick turrets and cantilevered deck, the NEZ has transformed Royal-Memorial from what was merely a first-class arena into arguably the finest football facility in the country. It also represents the crown jewel of a decade-long construction spree that has cost $348 million and rebuilt or refurbished most of the university’s sports venues. If that seems like a lot of money, then consider this: When Brown was hired, in 1997, the budget for UT’s sports program was $21.4 million. This year the figure is expected to hit $126.8 million, the largest of any university in the nation.

… If you divide UT’s total sports budget by the number of athletes, the per-athlete figure is $170,000. No other college in America comes close to that amount.

… Including the new suites, club seating, and additional seats at all three venues, UT will make a total of $23 million this year, of which roughly $14.5 million is consumed by debt payments from construction costs, leaving $8.5 million in profit. When the debt is eventually paid off, of course, the profit will be 100 percent. UT believes that the NEZ project will generate $318 million in the next thirty years.

I’m as big a fan of the Longhorns as anyone, but I would agree that college football has become too commercialized.  Just look at the BCS.  The bowl system isn’t really designed to determine the best football team in the country; it’s designed to make money.  Corporations spend hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising and corporate sponsorships every year to plaster their brands on stadiums, bowl games, and even the yellow first-down line.  (I found one source from 2006 which listed the cost of a 30-second ad during the Rose Bowl as $800,000.)

So why not funnel more of those profits to other areas of the university?  Tuition is rising about 5% a year at UT Austin, and higher at other UT campuses.  Seems kind of hard to justify that while the Athletics Department is spending $15,000 a night for the football team to stay at a hotel before each home game.  (That $15,000 would pay for roughly two years of undergraduate tuition for a UT student.)

Still, when was the economics of higher education ever logical?  I mean, you could spend about $8,500 a year in tuition at UT Austin or $43,950 a year to go to Bates College in Lewiston, Maine.

And Bates College doesn’t even have a football team!